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Friday November 28, 2003

Skeptics question whether Sharon will execute ‘unilateral steps’

by leslie susser
jta

jerusalem | Was it a classic political maneuver by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon?

It all started with one enigmatic sentence. “I don’t rule out unilateral steps,” Sharon declared emphatically — but without elaboration — at an exporters’ conference in Tel Aviv on Thursday, Nov. 20.

Sharon doesn’t have to say much about the Mideast peace process to arouse controversy.

The prime minister’s few words elicited scathing criticism from within his own Likud Party. But opposition leaders and senior Israeli pundits remain skeptical that he is ready to make concessions to the Palestinians. Sharon has made similar bombastic announcements before, they say, but never delivered.

Ha’aretz’s Yossi Verter says the scenario usually works this way: “Sharon goes to the Likud Knesset faction, which is comprised mainly of rightists, some ideological, some opportunistic. They jump all over him. He bangs on the table and reminds them that they owe their jobs to him, and once again earns the media’s plaudits. And all without saying a single word in his own voice that would commit him to evacuating settlements.”

However, Sharon confidants claim he is serious this time. They have been dropping broad hints that the prime minister’s grand plan includes dismantling some Jewish settlements to pave the way for the establishment of a mini-Palestinian state by next summer.

Even if peace talks with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia’s new government fail, aides say that Sharon — for profound strategic reasons — intends to carry out a unilateral withdrawal from some Palestinian territories to create a clear line of separation between Israelis and Palestinians.

The National Religious Party and the far-right National Union bloc are threatening to bolt the coalition if Sharon goes ahead, while leaders of the opposition Labor Party say that if Sharon is serious they’ll be ready to join his government.

Sharon hints sparked a flurry of exegesis. One explanation is that the prime minister wants to make gestures to help bolster Qureia’s position on the Palestinian street; another is the more radical notion of unilateral withdrawal if negotiations with Qureia fail.

Both ideas stung Likud politicians, who called a party meeting on Monday and demanded that Sharon explain himself. But the prime minister declined to retract his words or spell out, in any detail, what he meant.

Sharon refused to deny reports that he intended to evacuate some settlements, and said he had spoken about “painful concessions” so that “people wouldn’t wake up one day and say they didn’t know.”

“It is obvious,” Sharon continued, “that ultimately we will not be in all the places we are in now.”

So what does Sharon really have in mind? Is it all spin, or does Sharon really mean to act?

According to his aides, who insist that Sharon is serious, the prime minister has a two-tiered plan aimed at creating a mini-Palestinian state.

Plan A is to do so through negotiations based on the ”road map” peace plan. Plan B is to do so unilaterally if the road map negotiations fail.

This, too, could be more spin and political gamesmanship. But if Sharon really is serious, and if negotiations with the Palestinians fail, the big question will be where Sharon draws the dividing line between the two peoples.

Will it be a line that entails dismantling settlements and keeps open future chances for a two-state deal, as many on the right fear? Or does Sharon plan to leave the Palestinians with 50 percent or less of the West Bank, undermining prospects for a future agreement, as many on the left fear?

The pundits suggest a third option, that Sharon is merely playing for time, using feints and dodges to impress the Americans and the Israeli public, with no intention of making meaningful political moves.

As usual in the Middle East, what the future holds is anyone’s guess.

Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.

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