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Friday June 16, 2000

Why Clinton's condolences were sent from home

JANINE ZACHARIA
Jerusalem Post Service

Despite all the chatter about Clinton entering the lame-duck phase of his presidency, people realized that his decision was still a weighty one, and that his presence or absence could have a crucial, symbolic impact at a time of deep uncertainty in the Middle East.

In the end, he decided to stay home, offer his condolences and send Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Tuesday's funeral in Damascus. Assad was buried later in the day in a private ceremony in the rural town of his birth, Qurdaha.

Several elements led to Clinton's decision.

First, Syria is still officially on the U.S. "state sponsors of terrorism" list, and his attendance could have raised eyebrows domestically.

Second, despite a decade of shuttle diplomacy by U.S. officials to Damascus and a quarter century of U.S.-Syrian relations, Assad ultimately was regarded as a dictator who ruled with an iron fist, at times with extreme brutality.

Third, in terms of protocol, it would be unusual for a U.S. president to visit a country without a new temporary leader of equivalent rank to greet him.

And fourth, while Clinton met several times with Assad face-to-face, images of Clinton paying respects in Damascus alongside leaders from Iran -- where 13 Jews are on trial for alleged espionage -- and other foes of Israel may not have been well-received by the American Jewish community and could have damaged Al Gore's and Hillary Clinton's respective bids for the presidency and Senate.

Did Clinton make a shrewd political decision, or did he miss a historic opportunity to kick off a new phase in Syrian-U.S. relations, and by extension, Syrian-Israeli ties?

The assessments are mixed. While many commentators predicted and agreed with Clinton's move, still other analysts say the president missed a rare chance to do something creative during his homestretch in office.

"In my judgment it would have been better if he had gone," said Shibley Telhami, who holds the Anwar Sadat Chair of Population, Development and Peace at University of Maryland.

"I don't think he or Al Gore would have played a political price for it. And certainly Israel would have found it to be helpful.

"This is a significant change. It would have been received well over the Arab world."

Telhami said that however "disliked" Assad may have been by some, he was "a giant of an Arab leader. And in the tradition of Middle East politics, you participate in those kind of events."

Plus, it would have afforded Clinton a quick, up-close read of Assad's son and heir apparent, Bashar, about whom the Americans have built a file but do not know personally.

But others say it is premature for Clinton to meet Bashar.

"I think Bashar probably needs a little time to sort things out at home," said William Quandt, a Middle East expert at the University of Virginia who helped negotiate the Camp David accords with Egypt. "The arrival of the president at your doorstep along with other heads of state at this stage is probably not Bashar's dream scenario."

Quandt predicted that Clinton may reach out to Bashar at a later stage when less eyes are on him, assuming he consolidates power in Damascus. But with time running out on his presidency, Clinton probably will focus the bulk of his efforts on the Palestinian track, he said.

Another question: Would it have been awkward for a U.S. president to attend the funeral of a leader whose country is cited as a sponsor of terrorism?

A bit, said Quandt. But he pointed out that, in reality, the U.S. has been treating Syria "as if none of that's true. Presidents have been in and out of Damascus," he said.

"Certainly in the past decade, Americans would agree that Assad is not in the same category as North Korean President Kim Jong Il or Iraqi President Saddam Hussein," he added.

But many analysts and Jews disagree, as Assad's legacy is documented as one of brutality and terror.

In any case, at a time when we seem closer to peace then ever -- yet it is still uncertain -- U.S. policy-makers know it is crucial to utilize this time wisely.

Clinton's absence at the funeral could provide an excuse for a hasty visit to Damascus, to get to know the ophthalmologist heir to power that appears vastly more merciful than his father.

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