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Friday January 14, 2005

Time for hope, at last?

editorial

On balance, the news from the Middle East has been encouraging. Though spasms of violence continue to rip through the region, the positive signs can’t be ignored.

Is it time to start hoping again?

At first glance it would seem so. Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza and eastern Jerusalem have just held the first free and fair elections ever in the Arab world. This is a historic achievement.

By electing Mahmoud Abbas — a man Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says he can work with — Palestinian voters have chosen someone who has argued against violence. They could have voted for a harder-line leader, but they did not.

On the Israeli side, Sharon has formed a unity government with Labor and a small religious party, ensuring the Gaza disengagement plan will have sufficient support in the Knesset to overcome opposition.

Around the world, there is a growing conviction that a window of opportunity has opened wide. Perhaps now, after so much blood and sorrow, Israel can finally make peace with its Palestinian neighbors.

Not so fast. History teaches us that in this part of the world, progress is measured in inches and failure is measured in miles.

Despite Abbas’ reputation as a pragmatist, he has promised to go easy on Hamas and other terror groups (none of which supported his candidacy). He has promised to keep alive the “legacy” of Yasser Arafat. He has promised to honor the basic demands of his people, apparently including a non-starter: the Palestinian right of return.

How’s that for pragmatism?

As for Sharon, he has a restive Likud Party on his hands. Many key members strongly oppose the Gaza plan, while the religious party that gave the prime minister his narrow Knesset majority has declared it may pull out after a short trial period.

Israel’s small but noisy settler groups vow to fight the Gaza withdrawal with everything they’ve got. Some in the Israel Defense Forces have threatened to disobey orders to evacuate settlements. Insurrection is in the air and the Kassam rockets keep flying.

Add it all up and the obstacles to peace remain formidable.

Jews have a right to be suspicious of any Palestinian government that does not take irrevocable steps to dismantle the terror infrastructure. Sharon’s coalition is shaky, and any number of political earthquakes could topple it. New elections could change everything.

We want to be positive about the future. But we believe the best course is to remain vigilant and skeptical, while keeping hope handy, just in case we need it.

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