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Friday February 18, 2005

As hopes rise, Israelis foresee economic boom

by gil sedan
jta

jerusalem | One party follows another at the Tel Aviv stock exchange, and the brokers just keep smiling.

Tuesday was a typical day at the exchange. Right after trade started, the market jumped .2 percent.

And that’s not all: The latest report from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed the Israeli economy grew 4.3 percent last year, as the credit-rating agency Fitch upgraded Israel’s domestic currency forecast from negative to stable.

And last week, as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met for their summit at Sharm el-Sheik, an international tourism convention opened in Tel Aviv. Delegates from 30 countries forecast greater and greater windfalls for the industry.

This week the Knesset approved Sharon’s plan to withdraw from Gaza, funding compensation to settlers and authorizing the phased disengagement measure. The vote paved the way for the implementation of agreements made at the summit with Abbas.

The air is saturated with dreams and promises. Some seem to feel that the sky is the limit.

Israel will release 500 Palestinian prisoners next week, one of a series of goodwill gestures aimed at strengthening the new Palestinian leadership, a Palestinian negotiator said.

Israel is planning to release another 400 prisoners within the next three months. A joint Israeli-Palestinian ministerial committee will decide which prisoners will be released in the second round.

Next week, Tourism Minister Avraham Hirschsohn and his Palestinian Authority counterpart, Matri abu-Aita, will meet with Pope John Paul II in an attempt to increase Christian pilgrimage to the Holy Land.

The Tourism Ministry expects about 700,000 Christian tourists this year and thinks that about 250,000 of them will be pilgrims. Last year Israel hosted 500,000 Christian tourists, including 150,000 pilgrims.

The Israel Hotel Association expects some 1.8 million tourists in Israel this year, up from 1.5 million last year.

Charter flights from Europe to Eilat and other resorts are on the upswing as well. Issta Lines, a travel company, is again marketing tourism packages from Britain, Holland and France to Eilat, Sinai and Aqaba in Jordan — all for $1,000 for a 10-day tour, including air fare and taxes.

If the situation remains quiet and tourism picks up, the Palestinians stand to gain right away. Now that Jericho is about to be returned to Palestinian Authority control, the company operating the casino is considering reopening it.

“Just allowing the entry of Israeli Arabs into the markets of the West Bank would give us a real boost,” said Hisham Awartani, director of the Center for Private Sector Development in Ramallah and Nablus. “This is not a big concession for Israel, but for towns like Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm and Kalkilya it could mean a 180-degree turn.”

Yet many remain skeptical of the rosy forecasts. Although the dreams are promising, they’re hardly new.

They’re the same dreams that were common until 4 1/2 years ago, when the Palestinians turned to violence and terrorism, prompting Israeli countermeasures and security closures. The intifada has led to a precipitous drop in the Palestinian standard of living, and contributed to several years of recession in Israel.

“I am cautiously optimistic, but things could easily go back to where they were,” Awartani said. “People hope that this will change, but no one is confident after the traumatic experience of the last 4 1/2 years.”

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