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Friday April 29, 2005

Is AIPAC weaker without key analyst?

by matthew e. berger & ron kampeas
jta

washington | Not so long ago, the word on Steve Rosen, policy director for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was that he was so knowledgeable that he trained the group’s board members in the ways of Washington.

In his 23 years with the pro-Israel lobbying powerhouse, Rosen’s encyclopedic knowledge of Middle East geopolitics and Beltway power politics nurtured AIPAC’s lay leadership and guided its policies.

That same leadership has fired Rosen because, AIPAC says, of information arising out of an FBI investigation into alleged mishandling of classified Pentagon documents. The question is raised: Who will guide AIPAC now?

AIPAC has gone to great lengths to insist that the departing analyst was the target of the investigation, not the organization. And Howard Kohr, AIPAC’s executive director, has reportedly taken steps to insure that the absence of Rosen will have little effect on lobbying efforts.

Still, Rosen’s imprint remains in substantial ways: Iran’s threat to Israel, his top priority in recent years, is to be the centerpiece of this year’s AIPAC’s policy conference, which begins May 22. The conference will feature a walk-through exhibit on how close Iran is to developing a nuclear weapon.

Yet tactically Rosen’s departure already is being felt as AIPAC returns to its roots, working Capitol Hill and moving away from the executive branch lobbying that was emblematic of Rosen’s approach.

JTA revealed last week that AIPAC had fired Rosen and Keith Weissman, its senior Iran analyst who also has been targeted by the FBI. Significantly, the only on-the-record statement by AIPAC since then emphasizes congressional lobbying.

“With growing membership, record attendance at events around the country and continued successes on Capitol Hill, AIPAC is energized and focused on the future,” spokesperson Josh Block said.

Some of the group’s recent successes include Congress’ approval of $2.6 billion in foreign aid for this year, extending the duration of Israel’s loan guarantees and attaching strict oversight guidelines to $200 million in assistance to the Palestinian Authority.

The Senate also unanimously passed a bill expanding homeland security cooperation between Israel and the United States. The House of Representatives passed a resolution urging the European Union to put Hezbollah on the EU terrorist list and overwhelmingly passed resolutions condemning Syria for its occupation of Lebanon.

AIPAC’s grass-roots supporters have sought assurances that the FBI investigation won’t impinge on the lobby’s effectiveness. A measure of AIPAC’s determination to reassure its base is its recent willingness to go on the record about its Capitol Hill successes, a reversal of a longstanding policy to play down AIPAC’s influence.

AIPAC officials say the grass roots are solidly on board. AIPAC expects 5,000 people at the policy conference, which culminates with a day of show-of-strength lobbying on Capitol Hill. The number is commensurate with previous conferences, officials said.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon are slated to address the conference, a show of support from both governments. A wide list of congressional leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) also will be featured.

AIPAC officials say that its financial contributions continue to grow, and that 5,000 people have attended AIPAC events across the country in the past five weeks.

Off Capitol Hill — especially at the State Department and the Pentagon — Rosen’s departure is expected to diminish AIPAC’s Washington visibility.

“Steve Rosen is not a politically known [Capitol ]Hill quantity,” one former AIPAC staffer said. “But he was very well known in the State Department and Israeli Embassy.”

Still, lower visibility in those areas might not be a bad thing for now. It was precisely the relationship between Rosen and Weissman and a Pentagon Iran analyst, Larry Franklin, which precipitated the FBI’s investigation.

Former AIPAC staffers say there are good and bad things about Rosen’s departure. With Rosen pegged by those staffers as a “loose cannon,” some hope the organization can become more focused without his pervasive presence.

Rosen’s connections with bureaucrats and appointed officials helped AIPAC garner insider information on Middle East policy. Policymakers on the Hill and Jewish donors craved the tidbits Rosen’s operations uncovered, and helped the organization gain a loyal fan base in Washington.

Steve Grossman, a former AIPAC president, said Rosen had a “virtually encyclopedic knowledge of the issues.” But he believes the organization has many other professionals who can pick up the mantle.

Former staffers, many of whom did not get along with Rosen, suggested last week that he could try to sabotage AIPAC or the pro-Israel agenda if he is unhappy with his severance settlement from AIPAC. Grossman said he did not believe that was possible.

“Steve’s committed to and personally dedicated to the cause of U.S.-Israeli relations,” Grossman said. “It is such a critical part of his life that I have no concerns at all.”

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