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Friday January 12, 2007

European Muslim demographics cause for concern

It’s human nature to dismiss a “Cassandra,” one who cries out a warning before danger becomes apparent. Yet so often, many of history’s Cassandras turned out to be right.

Case in point: a recent opinion piece in the Jerusalem Post by columnist Michael Freund. The subject: the demographic time bomb of European Muslims.

Freund cites statistics compiled by the Rand Corporation that show the fertility rates in every EU country dropping below the “replacement” rate of 2.1 children per couple.

Meanwhile, the Muslim population of Europe is on the rise, and will likely double by 2025 to 40 million. The most popular baby name in Sweden, Belgium and Holland is Muhammad. Trends point to Muslim majorities in several countries within a generation or two.

So what might this mean?

We cannot look to the American assimilation model for answers. Here, most immigrant populations –– including many Muslims –– have Americanized, adopting American values and civic responsibilities. Despite media scares with Blind Sheiks and sleeper cells, the vast majority of American Muslims are good neighbors and loyal citizens.

That is not the case in Europe. Evidence suggests most European Muslims live in insular communities, often marginalized by the majority. If in time these communities become majorities, it’s hard to imagine anything other than increased hostility towards the United States, Israel and the West.

We might not even have a “West” anymore.

“Not since Sept. 8, 1683, when the Ottomans were threatening to breach the walls of Vienna, has Islam been so perilously close to seizing control over Western Europe,” Freund writes.

That is hysterical language. One of the dangers in interpreting the data is giving in to hair-trigger racism. But as a world Jewish community, we cannot ignore the portents of this growing Muslim population. Over the long run, it could indeed work against American, Israeli and even European interests.

Like global warming, this is a problem that appears hard to fix. But a fix is required. Having more Jewish babies wouldn’t be a bad way to start. Imagine how we’d feel if we knew the Jewish population would double by 2025.

But that is not going to happen.

Rather, we must press on fighting global anti-Semitism, solidifying Jewish political gains and bolstering Israel’s posture around the world.

Spanning the centuries, Europe has a lousy record when it comes to treatment of Jews. This latest news could just mean more of the same. It is incumbent upon Jews and all people of good will to make sure it isn’t.

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