by leslie susser
jta
jerusalem | In common with most of the international community, Israel is adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward the Mecca agreement between the Palestinians’ rival factions Hamas and Fatah.
Some Israeli analysts see the deal, reached Feb. 8, primarily as an internal Palestinian affair. It calls for an end to internecine violence between Hamas and Fatah, and the establishment of a national unity government led by Hamas in which Fatah would have parity.
The more optimistic pundits, however, believe the Hamas-Fatah unity government will be able to negotiate meaningfully with Israel on a two-state solution.
Much will depend on the new government’s attitude toward the international community’s conditions for dialogue: recognizing Israel, accepting previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements and renouncing terror. The Mecca agreement is vague on all three.
The first significant test could come early next week when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hold a summit to set the parameters for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Maybe then the world will find out which side made more significant concessions in the deal, and whether the more moderate Fatah or the more extreme Hamas will be calling the shots in its aftermath.
If it is Hamas — as most Israeli pundits predict — there’s a further question: Will the terrorist group merely present a facade of unity in an effort to get international economic sanctions lifted without making any ideological concessions, or will it use the unity government as a cover to genuinely moderate its rejectionist positions?
It does not call for recognizing Israel or renouncing terror. As for previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements, it does not call on the new government to endorse them, merely to “honor” them.
Some Palestinian moderates argue that “honoring” previous agreements implies recognizing Israel and renouncing terror, but Israel does not accept this logic — and so far, neither does the international community.
The Mecca agreement also left some internal Palestinian problems unsolved. For example, it does not clarify the identity of the important job of interior minister, who is in charge of all security forces except those under the president’s direct control.
Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, who is slated to lead the unity government, has the authority to put forward nominees for the post, but the sensitive appointment needs Abbas’ approval, and the two men have not been able to agree on a suitable candidate.
Moreover, it’s not clear what will happen to the outgoing Hamas government’s security forces. Will they remain separate and loyal to Hamas, or be integrated as part of a single Palestinian national security force under the interior minister’s control?
Israeli intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin sees Hamas as the big winner at Mecca and says its Damascus-based chief, Khaled Mashaal, has emerged as a political leader on a par with Abbas.
According to Yadlin, Hamas will continue to control the P.A. government without moderating its ideology. It will go on building its military power for a future showdown with Israel or with Fatah while seeking international legitimacy through its ostensible partnership with Abbas.
The Shin Bet concurs: It says Hamas has won a timeout to build up its military power and improve its public standing.
One of the new government’s first tests will be whether it releases a kidnapped Israeli soldier, Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who has been held in Gaza since June. Another test will be whether the government puts a complete stop to rocket fire on Israeli settlements near Gaza.
CopyrightJ, the Jewish news weekly of Northern California