by roee nahmias
Like a seasoned poker player, Syrian President Bashar Assad keeps his cards close to his chest.
At the last moment, following “clarifications” from Washington regarding the Golan Heights, Syria decided to get on the bandwagon and attend the recent Annapolis peace conference. All this was expected. However, below the surface, while Israeli officials were busy with the peace conference and the rank of representatives sent to attend it, Syria and Iran were up to their old games.
We are seeing another phase in the mighty struggle between the United States and Iran to influence the Middle East. In Annapolis, the Bush administration attempted to display its power by convening Israel and the Palestinians with the support of the Arab League, including Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon. All the while the Teheran-Damascus axis proves its strength daily: Witness the destabilization of Lebanon, the burning of Iraq, and the chaos of the Gaza Strip.
Time and again, Iran proves the strength of its grip in the Shiite crescent, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, all the way to the Palestinian territories. Syria fully admits to it. Its foreign minister traveled to Teheran to coordinate positions. A Syrian parliament member spoke about “strategic ties” that create a “crescent of resistance against the U.S. and the Zionists.” If this is not an admission of the establishment of an anti-American bloc in the Middle East, what is?
The dangerous game taking place in Lebanon these days also has a significant and almost direct influence on Israel. Ever since the last war, Lebanon is facing political paralysis between two main camps: the anti-Syria bloc, supported by the West, and the opposition, headed by Hezbollah with the support of Iran and Syria. At this time the crisis touches upon a dramatic matter: the identity of the next Lebanese president. The players have remained the same.
It was therefore amazing to see representatives of Europe and Russia make pilgrimages to Damascus one after another recently in order to ask Assad for assistance on the Lebanese front. Even Jordanian King Abdullah II ended a lengthy rift and came for a historic visit bearing a tempting package: Help us on the Lebanese front, come to Annapolis and get an immediate improvement of relations with Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who all turned their backs on Syria in the last war and after it.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy also acceded and called after he realized, along with the Americans, that there is no choice: In order to make Annapolis a success and prevent chaos in Lebanon, Assad must be enlisted.
With its breached Iraqi border, support for Palestinian terror groups, and in Lebanon as well, Damascus proves again that its hand (along with Iran’s
hand) is firmly on the faucet. If it wants to, it will put out the fire. Otherwise, it can make any temporary order in Beirut go up in flames. And this is exactly what Syria wanted: to prove to George Bush and to the entire world that it went to Annapolis on its own terms, not out of weakness.
“There is no doubt that Syria still has great control in Lebanon,” Lebanese sources told me. “Syria is playing the double game, in accordance with its interests. It lost the Golan Heights, and later it lost Lebanon, and now it attempts, through the Lebanese card, to get back in the game.”
Just like a seasoned poker player, Assad, who recently was humiliated by the Israeli Air Force’s attack in his territory, is keeping his cards close to his chest.
And so, Syria continues with its double game: It accepted Washington’s invitation but clings to the alliance with Iran; it attended Annapolis but sent a lower-ranked representative than other Arab states; it doesn’t believe Israel but seeks a similar conference with the Jewish state, maybe in Moscow; it continues to support terror groups but cancelled a special convention it organized with Hamas’ leadership.
What will this dangerous game lead to? More of the same: talk of peace, on the one hand; power games along the Shiite crescent, on the other hand. The bottom line is that no peace conference will change the Syrian and Iranian influence in Beirut — and also in Jerusalem — in the near future.
Roee Nahmias is the Arab affairs correspondent for Ynetnews.com, where this column previously appeared.
CopyrightJ, the Jewish news weekly of Northern California