by leslie susser
jta
Seventeen months after the last shots were fired in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s political future again is in doubt.
Not even President Bush’s visit this week to the Middle East is pulling Olmert out of his tailspin.
The growing pressure on Olmert to resign is expected to peak when the Winograd Commission publishes its final war report Jan. 30. Although the report won’t call directly for Olmert to resign, it is expected to contain a damning indictment of his wartime decisions.
The reserve soldiers and bereaved parents leading the public campaign against him are particularly incensed at Olmert’s decision to launch a large-scale ground operation when the war was virtually over and the two sides were on the brink of a cease-fire.
They say soldiers died in an operation Olmert launched to improve his image. Israel suffered its worse single-day casualty figure during that period, with 24 soldiers killed, including the son of Israeli novelist David Grossman.
Olmert has said he has no intention of resigning no matter what the report says. To do so, he argues, would be tantamount to desertion.
The prime minister, who leads the centrist Kadima party, survived the Winograd Commission’s critical interim report released in April 2007 that most pundits and many politicians thought would bring him down. This time, however, the domestic political situation is different.
Labor leader Ehud Barak is under strong public pressure to honor a promise made in May 2007 to quit the Kadima-led government if Olmert refuses to resign after the final Winograd report is published. Labor’s leaving or threatening to leave could prompt new elections.
Barak may want to keep his post as defense minister to complete the rehabilitation of the Israel Defense Forces and to influence the Annapolis peace process with the Palestinians. But if the report is as scathing as most analysts expect, he will find it difficult not to make Olmert’s ouster a
condition for Labor remaining in a Kadima-led coalition.
For now, Barak is keeping close to the vest. “I will read the report and do what’s best for Israel,” he said.
Most of the public pressure on Olmert has come from reservists who fought in the war and bereaved parents. The reservists’ campaign is being coordinated by Uzi Dayan, a former deputy chief of staff and leader of the small centrist Tafnit party.
They are targeting Barak, who was not a member of the wartime government. Labor Knesset members claim Dayan is working with opposition Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu to embarrass Barak into bringing down Olmert and paving the way for early elections.
The defense minister has several options. He could stay on with Olmert while agreeing with the opposition on new elections, perhaps in November. That would enable Barak to carry out his plans for the army, promote the Annapolis process and give him time to re-establish his prime ministerial credentials from a high-profile position in government. And by helping spark elections, he could argue that he had kept his promise to oust Olmert.
But a more appealing alternative may have Barak joining forces with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to oust Olmert and set up a new government under Livni that could remain in office until the next scheduled election, in 2010. That would give Barak two years to make his mark.
Livni is biding her time but says when the report is released “all options will be open.” She will be careful not to make the same mistake she did after the preliminary report: calling on Olmert to resign before she had mobilized enough support in Kadima to force him to go.
Some Labor legislators contend that if Livni becomes Kadima’s leader, there will be a real chance for the formation of a Kadima-Labor alliance.
Netanyahu has been working to bring Olmert down by detaching the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas parties from the coalition. His wealthy patron, American casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson, had met with Beiteinu and Shas leaders, urging them to leave the government.
CopyrightJ, the Jewish news weekly of Northern California