by leslie susser
jta
Despite international protests, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has indicated that Israel will keep up military and civilian pressure on the Gaza Strip in an effort to force Hamas and other Palestinian militia groups to stop their cross-border rocket attacks on Israeli civilians.
Israel relaxed its blockade somewhat Jan. 22 after masses of Palestinians tried to cross the Gaza-Egypt border. On Jan. 23, the crowds succeeded in knocking down the border fence, and thousands of Palestinians streamed into Egypt to stock up on supplies before returning to Gaza.
Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip could have some major positive policy ramifications. It aims to make a decisive impact on the seven-year-long cross-border war of attrition, it could weaken Hamas’ hold on Gaza and it could influence the Annapolis peace process.
It also has reinvigorated international condemnation of Israel, which was widely criticized for closing border crossing points to Gaza last week and reducing diesel fuel supplies used to produce electricity. Critics charge that shortages of electricity, food and medicine could cause a humanitarian crisis among Gaza’s 1.5 million inhabitants.
Though Israel countered that Hamas is making the situation look worse than it is to arouse sympathy and says no crisis is in the offing, Israel decided Jan. 22 to allow fuel, food and medicine to enter the strip.
The European Union, which sponsors the plant, said Israel has agreed to restore weekly fuel shipments. Israel said the imports were subject to weekly reviews.
In a phone conversation last week with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Olmert indicated there would be no change in Israeli policy until the Palestinian cross-border rocket attacks ceased. Mubarak had called to urge Olmert to lift the closure to avert a looming humanitarian crisis.
Olmert replied that Israel would not allow anything like that to happen because it would play into Hamas’ hands, but he insisted Israel would not ease the pressure.
The situation on the perennially tense Israel-Gaza border escalated sharply last week after Israel killed 19 mainly Hamas operatives in a raid.
Over the next few days, Palestinian militias fired more than 200 Kassam rockets and mortar shells at Israeli civilian concentrations — more than in all of December.
Israel retaliated by targeting more militiamen, bombing a building that once served as the Palestinian interior ministry and closing the border crossings between Gaza and Israel. It was the last step that drew intense international criticism from Europe, the United Nations and the Arabs.
The criticism highlights the dilemma Israeli decision-makers face: How do they stop an authority that cannot easily be deterred from firing rockets at civilians without incurring international opprobrium or heavy military losses?
Basically, three options are available:
n A large-scale ground operation and reoccupation of Gaza for at least several months.
The advantage would be to give the Israel Defense Forces the kind of control it has in the West Bank, enabling the IDF to prevent missile launches, destroy missile workshops and arrest militia operatives.
There is a downside: Taking Gaza and then maintaining an Israeli presence would probably entail heavy IDF casualties; the move would not play well in the court of international opinion; and it could also stymie peace talks with the more moderate West Bank Palestinians under Mahmoud Abbas.
n Negotiating a cease-fire.
That would be the most effective way to stop the Kassams — for now. A cease-fire, however, would enable Hamas to build up its military capabilities, making an Israeli attack several years down the road far more difficult. Although some ex-generals advocate this course, the government now is strongly against it.
n Keeping up strong military and economic pressure, including targeted killings of Hamas operatives, pinpointing ground raids to keep the militiamen off-balance and reducing fuel and other supplies to the civilian population without causing a humanitarian crisis.
The problem with this route — the one the government has adopted — is that it will inevitably run into international criticism and rather than getting the beleaguered civilian population to press the militiamen to stop firing, it might actually unite Gazans around Hamas.
With little fanfare, Israel ratcheted up the military pressure a few weeks ago. Since the beginning of the month, more than 70 militants have been killed in targeted strikes and pinpoint land operations.
On Jan. 17, the government added the civilian component, closing all the crossings to Gaza and significantly reducing fuel supplies.
The moves sparked a fierce propaganda war. Palestinians claimed there was no electricity in Gaza, while children carrying candles marched through the darkness to make the point. They also claimed that at least six people had died in hospitals because there was no electricity to power their life-support systems.
Col. Nir Press, the head of the IDF’s Coordination and Liaison Administration, pointed out that Israel is still supplying 70 percent of Gaza’s electricity and it is Hamas that decides how to ration it. There was no need for a total blackout in Gaza or for hospitals to be running on generators, he said.
CopyrightJ, the Jewish news weekly of Northern California