by douglas bloomfield
Each of the 2008 presidential candidates is a self-anointed agent of change. The sobriquet fits some better than others, but what they’re all trying to tell us is “I’m not George W. Bush.”
When Tom Brokaw said on “Meet the Press” recently that Republicans and Democrats alike feel “President Bush has been a disaster in terms of managing the presidency” and that even “born and bred Republicans [are] unhappy” with him, Peggy Noonan, former adviser to Bush 41 and Ronald Reagan, said, “Totally true.”
Rare is the Republican who has anything nice to say about the head of the party these days; even faint expressions of support are shadowed by criticism.
Republican turnout at this year’s caucuses and primaries — as well as fundraising — has been far below that of Democrats, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm among party faithful. But the real test will be Tuesday, Jan. 29 in Florida, where for the first time all four leading Republican hopefuls go head-to-head, competing for the largest group of delegates so far.
All are looking for a victory there to launch them ahead of the pack going into Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5, when 24 states are holding primaries, including delegate-rich California.
The Florida contest will also be the first one in which the Jewish vote can make a difference. Jews are estimated to be only 3 percent of registered Republicans in the state but with four Republicans in a statistical dead heat, they could constitute a decisive swing vote. (The Democratic primary the same day is overshadowed because no delegates are at stake and the candidates aren’t campaigning there.)
There is no crossover voting in Florida’s winner-take-all contest, and that’s bad news for John McCain, whose strength has been independent and Democratic votes in open GOP primaries. But he also has some important advantages.
In meetings with Jewish leaders during a brief trip to south Florida last week, I heard frequently that McCain was a heavy favorite in their communities, and the endorsement of Sen. Joseph Lieberman solidified that support. McCain is counting on Lieberman, a Democrat turned independent, to bring out not only the Jewish vote but desperately needed campaign contributions as well.
The Arizona senator’s main competitor is Rudy Giuliani, who in early polls led in Jewish backing and fundraising, but recent surveys, including my own unscientific sampling, suggest that the former New York City mayor is fading.
Giuliani has bet all his chips on Florida; to paraphrase his hometown song, if he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere. A poor showing in the Sunshine State could sap what’s left of his campaign’s momentum and dry up its fundraising. But if he has a good showing, the whole race will get flipped on its head.
Then there’s Mitt Romney, the man who hates Washington so much that he is willing to spend his fortune just so he can move to a city he admits he doesn’t understand but wants to fix.
If any candidate symbolizes change this year it is Romney, but not in the way he claims. The former Massachusetts governor is the ultimate public policy chameleon, shifting positions to fit his surroundings. He once claimed to be more pro-gay than Ted Kennedy and now sounds more like the Rev. Pat Robertson.
Romney’s a bit like the weather. If you don’t like his position on something, just stick around a while and it will change. And that is what most worries many Republican voters. Will he make another U-turn and head back to the center if he gets the nomination?
His religion remains an issue for some voters, especially evangelicals who consider Mormonism a cult, but there’s no evidence it makes any difference to Jewish voters.
The difference between Romney and Giuliani is the latter doesn’t change positions so much as embrace both sides simultaneously.
Giuliani says he supports abortion rights and gay rights but promises to appoint only “strict constructionist” — code for anti-abortion, anti-gay — judges. He believes in the sanctity of the Second Amendment and in gun control; he loved Nixon but voted for George McGovern.
McCain is no stranger to change, either. He earned his maverick spurs in 2000 by denouncing the same televangelists — “agents of intolerance”— he’s been pandering to since launching his current presidential bid. He even revealed that he’d switched churches from Episcopal to Baptist and said the intention of the founding fathers was “this is a Christian nation.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee may be the ultimate change candidate since he wants to amend the Constitution to meet “God’s standards,” presumably as interpreted by Pastor Huckabee. After telling that to evangelical audiences, he tried to convince a New York Jewish Week reporter that he was “not suggesting that we rewrite the Constitution.”
Not surprisingly, he hasn’t done well getting votes outside the evangelical community; Jewish Republicans say his nomination could trigger the biggest ever Democratic landslide among Jewish voters.
Since John Adams beat Thomas Jefferson in 1796, every election has been about change. But exactly what change constitutes is in the eye of the beholder — or, more and more, in the eyes of the spinmeisters.
Douglas Bloomfield is a Washington, D.C.-based political consultant who was formerly chief legislative lobbyist for AIPAC.
CopyrightJ, the Jewish news weekly of Northern California