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Friday February 8, 2008

The Jewish vote splits nationally

by ben harris
jta

With the Super Tuesday primaries in the books, the contest between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains close, with California’s Jewish vote between them even closer.

With her victory, Clinton will take a majority of the 440 delegates at stake in California, but neither candidate could claim a majority of the Golden State’s Jewish voters. Clinton took 48 percent of the Jewish vote in the state and Obama 44 percent. John Edwards, who withdrew from the race Jan. 30, won the support of 8 percent of California Jews.

In California, Jews compose 5 percent of Democratic voters, compared to 3.7 percent nationally.

Elsewhere, Clinton took 65 percent of the Jewish primary vote in New York, which she represents in the Senate, and 63 percent in neighboring New Jersey, compared to Obama’s 35 percent in New York and 37 percent in New Jersey. She captured both states in the overall voting.

But Obama made a strong showing in Connecticut, which he won overall, with 61 percent of the Jewish vote to 38 percent for Clinton. In Massachusetts, which Obama lost overall, the Illinois senator edged Clinton in the Jewish vote, 52 percent to 48 percent.

On the Republican side, Jews made up such a small percentage of voters that finding a quick and reliable statistical snapshot of their preferences was virtually impossible.

Exit poll data were reported by MSNBC based on polling conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.

Larry Greenfield, California director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, had no additional exit polling data, but said of the 2008 race “There’s a certain pride that Jewish Republicans feel at the repeated attention and assertions by all the leading Republican presidential candidates on the issue of resolute support of Israel, and clear-minded and vocalized concern about radical Islam.”

Obama’s campaign has been scrambling for weeks to rebut various email campaigns painting him as unsupportive of Israel and falsely alleging, among other things, that the Democratic candidate is secretly a Muslim who refuses to say the Pledge of Allegiance.

Some observers have asserted that the emails were hurting the senator among Jewish voters, despite his generally strong performance in earlier states among white, affluent, college-educated voters. Yet with the exception of New York, Obama fared better among Jewish voters Feb. 5 — in some cases substantially better — than he did among the broader white population.

In Massachusetts, for example, only 40 percent of white voters supported Obama compared to 52 percent of Jews. Obama also showed better among Jews than with voters earning more than $100,000 a year (44 percent) and college graduates (47 percent).

“People that would believe [the email attacks] weren’t voting for him anyway,” Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic consultant, said. “If it had really been so impactful, then Jews would have voted against him.”

Sheinkopf says the New York Times endorsement is more likely to move Jews to the Clinton side than scurrilous claims that Obama is weak on Israel and a Muslim sympathizer.

He attributed Jewish support for Obama in Massachusetts and Connecticut to the strength of Sen. Edward Kennedy’s endorsement.

“The Kennedy influence had an extraordinary impact,” Sheinkopf said, “partly for Jews that believe that secular liberalism is their religion. Kennedy’s liberalism and the impact of the Kennedy name were more influential on them than on other groups.”

Back on the Republican side, rumors have been flying about Joe Lieberman possibly serving as John McCain’s running mate, should he win the nomination, which is becoming more likely with each passing primary.

But political observers from across the political spectrum agree the chances are minimal that Lieberman, who was re-elected to the Senate as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats, will join a McCain ticket.

McCain is unpopular with segments of the GOP’s conservative base, and joining forces with a former Democrat could only make things worse. Besides, while the two men are close friends and broadly agree on a range of foreign policy issues, they are far apart on many domestic questions, from abortion to judicial appointments.

“I have had the privilege of speaking to both senators, who are very dear friends and think the world of each other, but they understand, as I think all of us must, this kind of ticket would be almost inconceivable in the current political situation,” said conservative talk radio host Michael Medved.

Polls showed that Jewish turnout on Super Tuesday was high. The Jewish percentage of the Democratic electorate outstripped the percentage of the general voting-age population in every Super Tuesday state with a significant Jewish community.

As the race moves forward, another large state with a sizable Jewish population, Pennsylvania, is likely to gain more attention in the media and from the two campaigns. Pennsylvania is scheduled to hold its primaries April 22.

J. staff writer Dan Pine contributed to this story.

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