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Friday May 9, 2008

Jewish voters sliding over to Obama

by ron kampeas
jta

A new poll this week shows that Barack Obama would do almost as well as Hillary Rodham Clinton among Jewish voters in November.

The survey also shows the presumed Republican candidate, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), is poised to make gains in the Jewish community.

The April 22 primary in Pennsylvania suggested that Obama was no longer competitive with Clinton among Jewish voters: Exit polls showed the U.S. senator from New York winning 62 percent of the Jewish vote to Obama’s 38 percent.

But a Gallup poll published Wednesday shows the senator from Illinois once again neck-and-neck with Clinton among Jews. Clinton still leads, scoring 50 percent against his 43 percent. These findings were based on aggregate tracking from April 1 to 30, including interviews with close to 800 Jewish voters and nearly 600 Jewish Democratic voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percent.

In a general-election matchup, according to the poll, Clinton would win 66 percent of the Jewish vote versus 27 percent for McCain. Obama would pull 61 percent to McCain’s 32 percent.

The Clinton campaign, following the Pennsylvania primary, sent an email blast touting her strong support among Pennsylvania Jews as evidence of her being the better candidate for the Jewish community.

Hypothetical matchups between McCain and the respective Democrats point to a potentially substantial shift among Jewish voters. In the 2006 midterm elections, exit polls showed Jews voting for Democrats at an 87 percent clip.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) managed to win about 75 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004, and Bill Clinton and Al Gore did even better before him.

But the new Gallup poll has McCain exceeding those GOP numbers, regardless of which candidates he faces.

Some observers say that in appealing to Jewish voters, McCain benefits from a pro-Israel record, a strategy of distancing himself from the Bush administration and his reputation as a moderate. n

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