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Friday June 20, 2008

What will come of a truce?

by leslie susser
jta

There are huge doubts that a six-month cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could help create conditions for wider peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians.

Israeli generals don’t believe the truce, which is due to go into effect June 19 (after j.’s press deadline), will hold. And the chances that Hamas and the more moderate Fatah, which controls the West Bank, will work in tandem for a wider peace deal are remote.

When Hamas violently took control of the Gaza Strip a year ago, Israeli and American leaders saw an opportunity for peacemaking with the relatively moderate Fatah leaders.

The idea was that with Hamas out of the way, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finally could negotiate the two-state deal Israel and the Palestinians have been trying to close ever since the signing of the Oslo accords.

But a year later the situation is more complicated.

Abbas hasn’t had the authority to deliver a deal that would include only the West Bank, let alone a full-fledged, peace-abiding Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

After about 2,000 Kassam rockets and mortar shells have blasted Israel’s southern towns, it has become clear that as long as Hamas controls Gaza, it can scuttle any deal by rocketing Israeli civilians.

In the announcement June 17 of the cease-fire that it brokered, Egypt said Israeli forces will stop initiating attacks in Gaza and Hamas will ensure an end to cross-border shelling from the territory, Egyptian mediators said.

Israeli officials had said earlier a truce was imminent and that in addition to a suspension of hostilities, it would involve easing a blockade on Gaza.

But Israel has demanded progress in talks on the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, a soldier held hostage by Hamas, for Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt to open.

For weeks, Egypt has been mediating a temporary lull in hostilities between Israel and Hamas. In a breakthrough a few days ago, both sides agreed to make major concessions. Hamas dropped its insistence on linkage between a cease-fire in Gaza and one in the West Bank, and Israel gave up its demand for Shalit’s release as part of an initial cease-fire deal.

Hamas’ compromise on the West Bank, where Israel insists on freedom of action against radical militants, constitutes a major retreat. The implication is that Hamas does not speak for the Palestinian people as a whole but only for Gaza.

Israel agreed to decouple the cease-fire and Shalit’s release on the understanding that immediately after the lull takes hold, the parties will begin intensive negotiations through Egypt on a prisoner exchange.

Although neither recognizes the other, Israel and Hamas have agreed to stop shooting after a year of relentless hostilities. Both sides have much to gain from the cease-fire.

Over the past few months, Hamas and other militant groups have been taking a pounding from the Israel Defense Forces, losing an average of four members a day. That pounding continued June 17, even as the cease-fire was announced.

Moreover, without a cease-fire, Hamas leaders know they face the prospect of a major Israeli ground incursion that could deal a crushing blow to their military infrastructure.

They also hope that if the lull holds, Israel will lift its economic blockade and open border crossing points, including the Rafah crossing into Egypt.

For Israel, a cease-fire would enable it to avoid the inevitable casualties of a major ground operation, ensure quiet for civilians in the Gaza perimeter who have been under constant rocket attack for more than seven years and create conditions for Shalit’s release.

Hamas attacks in recent weeks have become more intense after the militiamen received Iranian 120mm mortars, which are more accurate and more deadly and have a longer range than the homemade Kassam rockets they had been using.

Israel, however, does have some major concerns.

Israelis are worried that Hamas will use the lull to bring in heavy weapons, build bunkers, move up forces and lay mines close to the border fence. In short, Hamas will be able to make major strides toward creating a military infrastructure similar to that of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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