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Friday November 15, 1996

Conservative headquarters will now shift to the Senate

David Harris

It is already abundantly clear that the Jewish community will be directly affected by last week's elections -- just as it was two years ago.

We at the American Jewish Congress began our 1994 midterm election "instant analysis" by proclaiming: "This changes everything." In contrast, at least superficially, one can rightly point out that the 1996 elections did not change control of the White House, the Senate or the House.

But the similarities between the 104th Congress and the 105th are only skin deep: The Senate is sharply more conservative and the House Republican majority is narrowed. As a result, the President must continue his search for mainstream issues -- many of great concern to the Jewish community -- on which he can strike a compromise with the next Congress.

And while control of these branches of government remains as it was, this fact in itself makes a bit of history. Only four brief two-year periods in American history (1895-96, 1919-20, 1947-48 and 1995-96) have been marked by a Democratic president and a Republican Congress. And each two-year period ended in united control of government -- until now. Perhaps no other indicator more clearly shows the deeply conflicting desires of the American voter. One can label it "gridlock" or "checks and balances," but either way, it's here for at least another two years.

When trying to gauge how the next Congress will address issues of concern to the Jewish community -- including abortion, foreign aid, school prayer, school vouchers and budget issues like a balanced-budget amendment -- a good first indicator should be the new congressional composition.

With a reduced Republican majority in the House and an expanded and more partisan GOP majority in the Senate, we can expect a clear ideological shift in the Congress: America's conservative headquarters will now primarily be the Senate, not the House.

This Senate election cycle included the most open seats since 1914, and conservative Republicans benefited handily. When the dust settles, the Republicans will most likely have a net gain of two Senate seats, moving from the 53-47 seat majority of the 104th Congress to a 55-45 seat majority in the 105th.

But the real partisan shift is only clear when examining the seats that changed from moderate Democrats or Republicans to strongly conservative Republicans. This trend was most visible in the victories of Alabama's Jeff Sessions, replacing Democrat Howell Heflin; Arkansas' Tim Hutchinson, replacing Democrat David Pryor; Colorado's Wayne Allard, replacing Hank Brown; Kansas' Sam Brownback, filling Bob Dole's former seat; Nebraska's Charles Hagel, replacing Democrat James Exon; and Wyoming's Michael Enzi, replacing Alan Simpson.

While the Republican House advantage in the 104th Congress stood at 236-198, it appears that the Democrats may have picked up nine seats, possibly shrinking the Republican majority to 227-207, the narrowest majority in the House since 1954.

But the final tallies will not be known for weeks, after several recounts and three run-off elections in Texas. Only a handful of the closely watched Republican freshmen lost their races, and this is where the Democrats had pinned their hopes of regaining control of the House.

Another early indicator of the next Congress' performance on the above-mentioned issues should be who controls the relevant congressional committees.

But in this case, there will be almost no shake-up in the committee leadership structure, which augers well for the status quo. Foreign aid -- at least that aid earmarked for Israel -- will generally be supported in the 105th Congress, particularly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent words about his intention to ultimately wean Israel off foreign assistance.

The focus on social issues such as abortion, school prayer and vouchers will likely shift from the House to the Senate, as that is where the loudest conservative voices will reside in the 105th Congress.

But given the tenor of the campaigns that brought these conservatives to the Senate, we should be ready for some acrimonious floor battles over these perennial issues.

Senate leadership has unfortunately already indicated its intention to refocus on the passage of a constitutional balanced-budget amendment early in the next session, but otherwise, the congressional leadership has been relatively quiet about its specific plans for the 105th Congress. Their intentions will surely be clarified after the final House and Senate tallies are in, the recounts and run-off elections are held, and the freshman members complete their orientations.

The Jewish presence in the House and Senate will be similar to that in the 104th Congress, albeit with limited gains in the House. The Senate will continue to have 10 Jewish senators, due to unsuccessful bids by the three Jewish Senate hopefuls attempting to fill the seats of non-Jewish senators: Republican Nancy Mayer of Rhode Island, Republican Dick Zimmer of New Jersey and Democrat Jill Docking of Kansas. (Although Republican Rudy Boschwitz of Minnesota failed in his attempt to unseat Sen. Paul Wellstone, the seat will remain Jewish).

While there were 24 Jewish representatives in the 104th Congress, it appears that there will be 25 in the 105th Congress. Dick Zimmer (R-N.J.) left his House seat to run unsuccessfully for the Senate, and while Anthony Beilenson (D-Woodland Hills) also retired, his seat was won by Democrat Brad Sherman, a new Jewish member. The other two new Jewish members, both Democratic, are Robert Wexler in Florida and Steven Rothman in New Jersey. Jon Fox (R-Pa.) has kept his seat for now, but by a shockingly slim margin of only 10 votes. The race is being contested.

Clearly the composition of the 105th Congress -- particularly the increased stridency of a sharply more conservative Senate -- will have direct ramifications on the range of issues that are a traditional focus for American Jews.

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