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Friday October 31, 1997

News Analysis: Knesset's messy opening signals long winter for prime minister

DAVID LANDAU
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

JERUSALEM -- Predictions of "a long, hot winter" are fairly standard in Israel when the Knesset reconvenes after its prolonged summer and High Holy Day recess.

But this week, the mudslinging and raucous debate were hotter than usual.

It was not only the stormy atmosphere in the Knesset chamber -- including incessant heckling and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak's call for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "leave us, resign, go your way" -- that suggested a rocky road ahead.

The substance of Netanyahu's address, the reactions it elicited here and in Washington, a looming conflict within the coalition over the state budget, and a crisis with the Reform and Conservative movements in America -- all these gave credence to the sound and fury of Monday's opening parliamentary proceedings.

At the opening of the session, opposition members waved placards reading "Bibi Is Dividing the Country" and "I Am a Proud Jew."

The opposition protests came after Netanyahu told a rabbi last week that left-wingers "have forgotten what it means to be Jewish."

His remarks sparked a political furor, and on Monday he offered an apology, though he directed it toward Israeli soldiers and their parents who may have taken offense.

"I was sorry for the distorted interpretation of my remarks," he said, adding that he never intended "for someone to be hurt by the statements or construe them to mean I doubted their belonging to the people of Israel."

Netanyahu then turned on the opposition, accusing it of fueling ceaseless attacks on his government since he was elected a year and a half ago.

Despite the looming political strife, no one should write Netanyahu out of power yet -- not by any means.

True, there are many in Israel, including President Ezer Weizman, who are speculating about the possible collapse of the present coalition before the end of the year. But seasoned commentators -- even those profoundly critical of the prime minister's performance -- are wary of predicting his imminent downfall.

They note with appreciation his proven staying powers. Through the various crises that have dogged his first 16 months in office, he has confounded his critics and emerged intact.

And even though his standing has sagged over the months -- and, according to some polls, now lags behind Barak -- there can be little doubt that a solid core of his voters in the 1996 election remain essentially satisfied with his premiership.

His supporters are pleased that he has not handed back any more land to the Palestinians -- not since the January signing of the Hebron agreement, which he could not avoid concluding.

But just to make sure he remembers where his support comes from, the so-called Greater Israel Lobby, a group of 17 hard-line Knesset members, urged Netanyahu this week not to agree to the "time-out" on settlement building urged by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

The legislators warned that if he wavered, they would refuse to support him in the vital budget debates and votes.

The Yesha Council, which represents settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, went one step further, warning that any weakening on the part of the government would lead them to break ground immediately for a new settlement.

In his Knesset speech Monday, the prime minister staunchly maintained that he does not intend to waver on the settlements issue.

Also, his speech showered attacks on Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat for slacking off in the battle against terrorism. Netanyahu also made openly disparaging comments about the Oslo Accords and the interim agreements on which they are based.

Regarding the peace process with the Palestinians, Netanyahu reiterated the charge that the Palestinian Authority was still not fulfilling its commitments under the signed agreements.

Instead, Netanyahu told the Knesset, the self-rule government continued to maintain a "revolving door policy" with Hamas prisoners.

As if Netanyahu didn't have enough to worry about, he must also consider that Foreign Minister David Levy and his mostly Sephardi supporters view the government's economic policy with severe misgivings and are seriously contemplating provoking a coalition crisis in the upcoming budget debates.

The Netanyahu government was expected to present the Knesset with a more than $58 billion 1998 budget that contains massive cuts to social programs.

The cuts will affect Israel's poor, who form a large part of Netanyahu's -- and Levy's -- supporters.

Netanyahu's government could fall if the budget is not passed by the end of the year, and Netanyahu cannot feel safe until then.

A crisis was averted Tuesday when non-Orthodox leaders agreed to withdraw petitions from the High Court of Justice seeking official recognition of their conversions and their right to sit on local religious councils.

In return, the Orthodox parties agreed to postpone legislative action on two bills dealing with the same issues.

As a result of their actions, a committee headed by Finance Minister Ya'acov Ne'eman will have three more months to try to forge a compromise among the Orthodox and non-Orthodox movements. Already, they have missed several deadlines.

While the situation has been defused, the crisis is far from over and has already sparked a serious strain between Netanyahu's government and large sections of American Jewry.

And it is happening just when his foreign policy differences with the Clinton administration seem to be coming to a head.

It is sure to be a long winter.

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